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WHATS THE MARKET DOING ?


The Following is an extract from the UK RICS Residential Market Survey :


July 2019

The July 2019 RICS Residential Market Survey results show some of the improvement seen in near term expectations series last month has been partly reversed this time out. In particular, the outlook for prices three months ahead has turned slightly negative once more, while respondents envisage sales remaining flat over the same time frame. That said, new buyer enquiries picked up slightly for the second consecutive month, although this has yet to feed into any meaningful increase in agreed sales.

Starting with new buyer demand, a headline net balance of +8% of contributors reported an increase in enquiries during July. This marks the second report running in which a small increase has been cited (net balance was +10% in June), with the disaggregated data showing a slightly positive trend in the majority of UK regions.

Despite the modest improvement in demand, newly agreed sales edged down a fraction across the UK over the month. Indeed, the national net balance slipped to -6%, from +3% in June. Notwithstanding this, some regions saw a stronger sales trend, with respondents across the North East and the West Midlands in particular reporting a reasonably solid pick-up during July.

Looking ahead, near terms sales expectations eased back into neutral territory, posting a net balance of -2% (down from +6% in June). What’s more, sentiment is now only modestly positive regarding the twelve month outlook, with a national net balance of just +12% of respondents expecting sales to rise over the year ahead. When broken down, survey participants across the North East, North West, Wales and the West Midlands are more optimistic than the national average, as each area displays comfortably positive sales projections for the next twelve months.

Alongside this, new instructions to sell were seen as unchanged for the second successive report. This follows a string of eleven consecutive monthly declines in fresh listings beforehand. Even so, respondents continue to report that the volume of market appraisals undertaken over the month was down on the same period of last year. Accordingly, it seems there is little prospect of a sustained rise in supply coming onto the market in the immediate future.

Meanwhile, the survey’s headline price indicator pulled back into negative territory in July, with the national net balance falling to -9% (having edged up to -1% in June). Nevertheless, contributors report that prices are rising at a solid pace in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. By way of contrast, prices continue to fall in London, the South East and East Anglia.

Back at the national level, feedback from contributors is still suggesting that higher priced tiers of the market are facing a more challenging environment. 69% of respondents note that, for properties marketed at over £1m, sales prices are coming in below asking prices (up from 66% in April). However, for properties listed at up to £500k and below, 59% of survey participants report sales prices have been at least level with asking (albeit this is slightly down on 62% three months ago).

When it comes to the outlook for prices, near term expectations deteriorated over the month, as the headline net balance fell to -12% from zero in June. Further out, at the twelve month horizon, projections remain marginally positive in net balance terms, with the latest reading coming in at +9%. That said, this latest figure is noticeably softer than +25% returned previously. At the regional level, the current downward trend in prices is now expected the persist over the coming twelve months in London, the South East and East Anglia. At the other end of the scale, respondents envisage strong annual growth in prices across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

In the lettings market, the headline tenant demand indicator (quarterly seasonally adjusted data) picked-up to post the strongest reading since the closing stages of 2016. At the same time, landlord instructions fell once again, extending a run of continuous decline stretching back over the past thirteen quarters. Given the current imbalance between supply and demand, near term rental growth expectations were driven higher, with the headline net balance of +25% in July representing the most elevated reading in twelve quarters.